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Monday, June 11, 2012

Spain bank rescue glee morphs into markets rout

Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, left and Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy talk during a swearing in ceremony for the new governor of the Bank of Spain Luis Maria Linde, unseen, at the Zarzuela Palace in Madrid Monday June 11, 2012. The current Bank of Spain governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez is stepping down a month earlier than scheduled. (AP Photo/Angel Diaz,Pool)

Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, left and Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy talk during a swearing in ceremony for the new governor of the Bank of Spain Luis Maria Linde, unseen, at the Zarzuela Palace in Madrid Monday June 11, 2012. The current Bank of Spain governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez is stepping down a month earlier than scheduled. (AP Photo/Angel Diaz,Pool)

A journalist stands live on TV in front of the Stock Exchange's main display AS it shows Bankia values, in Madrid Monday June 11, 2012. A European agreement to bail out Spain's banks sent stock markets surging Monday, but analysts warned that the deal doesn't solve all of the continent's problems, and the goodwill could be short-lived. (AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)

A demonstrator hits a pot during a protest against the financial crisis and the latest government Economic measures in Sol square,in Madrid Sunday June 10, 2012. Spain's grinding financial misery will get worse this year despite the country's request for a European financial lifeline of up to a euro100 billion euros ($125 billion) to save its banks, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Sunday, a big blow to a nation that took pride as the continent's economic superstar just a few years ago only to see it become the hot spot in the eurozone debt crisis. A day after conceding Spain needed outside help after months of denying it would seek assistance, Rajoy said more Spaniards will lose their jobs in a country where one out of every four are unemployed as the country becomes the fourth and largest of the 17 countries that use Europe's common currency to request a bailout. (AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)

(AP) ? Euphoria over a lifeline of up to ?100 billion ($125 billion) to rescue Spain's hurting banks morphed into a financial markets rout in a matter of hours Monday, as investors digested the still-undefined plan and became concerned the country may be unable to repay the new loans.

The rate on Spanish 10-year bonds ? a measure of market trust in a country's ability to repay debt ? rose to an alarmingly high yield of 6.47 percent at the close of trading after falling to 6 percent in the morning. And the benchmark IBEX-35 stock index closed down 0.5 percent after surging 6 percent in the morning.

Overshadowing Spain's acceptance over the weekend of a bailout for banks burdened by toxic property assets and loans are Greek elections next weekend and concerns that the anti-bailout left-wing party Syriza could become the largest party in parliament, putting the country's membership in the zone at risk.

Investors also zeroed in on Italy, sending its bond yields sharply higher amid worries it could be next in line for a bailout because of a deepening recession and increasing pressure on the administration of Premier Mario Monti. And Spain's economy is in terrible shape with no sign of improvement anytime soon.

"Plenty of risk still remains in place, with question marks over the ability of Spain to repay the debt, especially, if the country fails to get back on the growth path, the outcome of the upcoming Greek elections and the perception of situation in Italy," Anita Paluch of Gekko Global Markets wrote in a note to clients.

Spain's bond yield is worrisome because it is perilously close the 7 percent rate that is considered unsustainable, and the level that pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal to ask for bailouts of their government finances. While Spain's bailout does not include the government, investors are worried that Spain might eventually be forced into such a situation.

The rescue for Spain's banks was portrayed by Spanish and European officials as a bid to contain Europe's widening recession and financial crisis that have hurt companies and investors around the world. Providing a financial lifeline to Spanish banks was designed to relieve anxiety on the economy.

Finance ministers of the 17 nations that use the euro said Saturday they would make the loan of up to ?100 billion available to the Spanish government to prop up banks laden with non-performing loans and other toxic assets after the collapse of a real estate bubble.

Recession-hit Spain, which has the eurozone's fourth-largest economy, has yet to say how much of this money it will tap while it waits for the results of two independent audits of the country's banking industry, not due until June 21 ? after the Greek elections. The bailout loans will be paid into the Spanish government's Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB), which would then use the money to strengthen the country's teetering banks.

In a report released late last week, the International Monetary Fund estimated Spain needs around ?40 billion to prop up banks hurting from an unprecedented real estate boom that went bust.

Worried investors still don't know precisely how much Spain will seek, and how large a safety margin of extra money it might take to cushion itself against further shocks, such as a deterioration in the economy already in its second recession in three years with unemployment of nearly 25 percent, the highest in the eurozone.

"Markets will certainly ask the question about whether a second bailout might be required and the margin for error between the sort of euro40 billion the IMF is saying and the ?100 billion ceiling in terms of what we heard," said Mark Miller of Capital Economics in London.

He added that with the bailout, Spain's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio ? which was a relatively low 68.5 percent at the end of last year ? could shoot up to the 90s next year. And bond yields will remain high.

If the ratio gets up to Greek levels of 120 percent or so, and 10-year yields close in on the near-7-percent levels Spain hit several weeks ago "then people will ask that question about a second bailout" for Spain, Miller said.

Another issue is whether the European money comes with strings attached for the government, and not just an obligation for banks to restructure. When the bailout was announced on Saturday, Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said the rescue would not force any new austerity measures on a government that has already issued a wave of painful measures since taking power in December.

Speaking to reporters Sunday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy avoided using the term 'bailout' to describe the aid, calling it instead a credit line without the strict austerity conditions that have accompanied bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

However, the European Union made clear Monday the money is more than just a loan. Besides being paid back with interest, there will be conditions for the Spanish government.

"When people lend money, they never do it for free. They want to know what is done with the money," said Joaquin Almunia, the European Competition Commissioner.

"I am not talking about just the obligation to pay back the money, but also some other kind of terms," he told Cadena Ser radio, adding that these remain to be determined.

Spain's economy ministry released a statement later saying the package includes "the necessary conditionality for the financial sector" but requires new fiscal consolidation or structural reforms beyond those the government has already embarked on.

The loan will be supervised by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, Almunia said.

A European Commission spokesman, Amadeu Altafaj, told Spanish state television that this troika will have people on the ground overseeing the restructuring of the Spanish financial sector. Representatives of the same three groups regularly visit Greece, Ireland and Portugal to make sure the governments in those nations are complying with bailout terms,

Altafaj noted that the European Commission last month recommended Spain undertake further reforms such as speeding up the phasing of a higher retirement age ? it is to go from 65 to 67 ? and raise VAT sales tax. The newspaper El Pais quoted EU officials Monday as saying these changes and others are part of the conditions that come with the bank rescue package.

Adding to the gloomy mood on Monday, the Fitch Ratings agency downgraded the credit rating of Spain's two largest international banks Banco Santander SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA from A to BBB+.

The agency said the reasons for the downgrade were primarily because Spanish credit rating was downgraded to two notches above junk last week, because of a fresh forecast that Spain's faltering economy will remain in recession into 2013 "compared to the previous expectation that the economy would benefit from a mild recovery in 2013."

Banco Santander and BBVA are seen as immune from needing help from Spain's bank bailout because profits from their international operations have buffered their Spain losses. But Fitch also said they could be affected by any downturn that affects operations outside Spain. Both are big players in Latin America.

"Growth prospects for emerging markets in which Santander and BBVA subsidiaries operate have been revised down and they are not entirely immune to global economic trends but earnings from these markets will continue to contribute significantly to group earnings at both institutions," Fitch said in a statement.

___

Harold Heckle and Alan Clendenning in Madrid contributed to this report.

Associated Press

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Analysis: U.S. companies in sales struggle as global downturn bites

(Reuters) - U.S. companies are finding it more difficult to grow their revenue now than at just about any time since the financial crisis.

Second-quarter revenue growth for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> is expected to be just 2.2 percent compared with an average 7.3 percent quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 1998, according to Thomson Reuters data based on Wall Street analysts' forecasts. Take out the supercharged sales of Apple Inc and the picture is even weaker - with growth of only 1.9 percent for the current period.

The lowered expectations are a result of the euro zone crisis hurting demand from Europe, the impact of a slowdown in major developing economies such as China, Brazil and India, and recent signs of weakness in the United States.

Just last year, S&P 500 revenue growth was in double-digit territory, at 11.1 percent in the third quarter following an even bigger 13.6 percent in the second quarter. Revenue growth in the first quarter of this year came in at 5 percent.

Slowing revenue growth has wider implications for the U.S. and global economies. Companies are less likely to hire and more likely to fire to curb costs so that they can reach their earnings targets. Second-quarter earnings expectations for the S&P 500 are for growth of 6.7 percent, and 5.8 percent excluding Apple.

While the U.S. economy remains anemic, its relative strength compared with Europe, and the lack of a big bright alternative for investment in Asia, may provide some protection for the American workforce when any companies do slash jobs. The savagery of cuts during the financial crisis also doesn't give many companies a lot of slack to take out.

The U.S. manufacturing sector is also stronger than most other parts of the economy, with S&P 500 industrials' second-quarter sales expected to be up 6.6 percent from a year ago. The weakest sectors are energy, expected to see a 12.6 percent decline in sales in the second quarter, and telecommunications, seen up 3.2 percent.

"What we were looking for to happen in midyear was for emerging markets and Asian growth to bottom out, and that would provide some improvement in revenues in the second half," said Barry Knapp, managing director of equity research at Barclays Capital in New York.

"That's looking a bit questionable right now. Clearly the biggest trade bloc in the world - the euro zone - has not stabilized as of yet. The Asian export sector, the weakness you see there, is undoubtedly related to that."

Even technology companies that had benefited from strong demand in Asia are feeling the pinch. This week, analysts at JPMorgan Chase lowered their earnings estimates and price targets for Google Inc , online retailer Amazon , and travel web company Priceline.com , among others.

JPMorgan noted Google will derive more than 50 percent of its 2012 gross revenue from international markets. It dropped its revenue estimates for Priceline by 3 percent for 2012, noting the company gets 60 percent of its bookings from Europe.

"We still expect to see consensus (estimates) move lower for many names as we approach 2Q earnings over the next 6 weeks," wrote JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth in his note.

The trend in overall earnings revisions is not encouraging. The four-week moving average of global earnings revisions turned negative for the first time since March, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. When that happens, the S&P tends to fall 2 percent in the month that follows, they wrote.

Estimates may still not have factored in the unstable state of overseas markets, Knapp said. China's central bank surprisingly cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since the global financial crisis, as the country is set for its lowest rate of growth since 1999.

"It's yet another bit of a drag on these big global growth beneficiaries," Knapp said.

Among manufacturers though, there have been fewer signs of major stress. At an investor conference this week, officials from big U.S. industrials companies including Caterpillar Inc and 3M Co said they have not seen a sharp deterioration in European demand -- which they had expected to be weak -- but stand ready to cut back if things get worse.

3M Chief Financial Officer David Meline said at the meeting, "We have the flexibility should there be a significant downturn in the economy. We don't believe that to be the case right now."

SLOWING IN THE UNITED STATES

U.S. stocks appear to be pricing in more bad news. The S&P 500 index early this week briefly fell more than 10 percent from its April 2 intraday high, and has been under pressure for more than a month.

The index has recovered some of those losses in recent days, but has seen a big turnaround from the first three months of the year, when the S&P 500 rose 12 percent.

"The sentiment level is almost as sour as it was in March of '09. We don't have the panic we had in '09, but I think we certainly have fear and anxiety, and it comes through in looking at what people are doing with their money," said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust Co in Philadelphia.

S&P 500 revenue projections for 2.2 percent second-quarter growth have come down since the latter part of last year. In October, second-quarter revenue growth was seen at 4.3 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Going forward, forecasts for revenue don't show any real signs of improving.

Thomson Reuters' revenue growth forecast for the S&P 500 is for 2.9 percent for the third quarter, 4.1 percent for the fourth quarter and 2.7 percent for the first quarter of 2013.

The S&P 500 energy sector <.gspe> is expected to see revenue declines at least through early next year, the data showed.

Much of that is related to expected weakness in energy demand from Europe and China. In the past week, Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since October. U.S. crude oil is trading near $83 a barrel.

Energy company projections have also been dampened by natural gas prices, which are near lows not seen in a decade.

To be sure, the majority of S&P 500 companies have repeatedly beaten analyst expectations, both in terms of revenue and earnings. Sixty-seven percent of companies beat profit expectations for the first quarter.

But the ongoing deterioration in estimates underscores the caution analysts and companies are expressing - and leads to some concerns that companies are setting goals low so they can look better when the results come out.

In the first quarter, some companies that exceeded estimates did not see their stock prices rise, because the bar was repeatedly lowered.

(Reporting By Caroline Valetkevitch; Additional reporting by Scott Malone and Nick Zieminski; Editing by Martin Howell and Phil Berlowitz)

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